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Title:
Development and validation of nomograms predicting survival in Chinese patients with triple negative breast cancer | BMC Cancer
Description:
Background Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive and heterogeneous disease. Nomograms predicting outcomes of TNBC are needed for risk management. Methods Nomograms were based on an analysis of 296 non-metastatic TNBC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from 2002 to 2014. The end points were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, PREDICT and CancerMath. Models were subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using independent cohorts of 191 patients from the second Xiangya Hospital and Peking University Shenzhen Hospital between 2007 and 2012. Results On multivariable analysis of training cohort, independent prognostic factors were stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index, which were then selected into the nomograms. The calibration curves for probability of DFS and OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomograms was significantly higher than that of the seventh and eighth AJCC staging system for predicting DFS (training: 0.743 vs 0.666 (Pβ=β0.003) and 0.664 (Pβ=β0.024); validation: 0.784 vs 0.632 (Pβ=β0.02) and 0.607 (Pβ=β0.002)) and OS (training: 0.791 vs 0.683 (Pβ=β0.004) and 0.677 (Pβ<β0.001); validation: 0.783 vs 0.656 (Pβ=β0.006) and 0.606 (Pβ=β0.001)). Our nomograms had larger AUCs compared with PREDICT and CancerMath. In addition, the nomograms showed good performance in stratifying different risk groups of patients both in the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion We have developed novel and practical nomograms that can provide individual prediction of DFS and OS for TNBC based on stromal TILs, tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index. Our nomograms may help clinicians in risk consulting and selection of long term survivors.
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cancer, breast, pubmed, patients, article, validation, survival, nomograms, google, scholar, tnbc, training, prognostic, dfs, hospital, cohort, nomogram, predict, central, data, tils, tumor, model, predicting, index, variables, year, cas, models, size, triplenegative, stromal, analysis, university, women, based, developed, study, table, sun, status, values, score, risk, yatsen, auc, cohorts, liu, cindex, node,
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outcome-based cut-point optimization sun yat-sen university triple-negative breast cancers triple-negative breast cancer triple-negative breast cancer node-negative breast carcinoma node-negative breast cancer tnsβ=βtriple-negative survival tnrβ=βtriple-negative recurrence article download pdf small-cell lung cancer maximal chi-square test harrell fe jr stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes improved web-based calculators predicting recurrence-free survival defining er/pr negative breast cancer-specific survival central south university respective kaplan-meier curves nation-wide multicenter 10-year triple-negative survival high-dimensional phenomic data triple-negative recurrence randomized clinical trials multiple cut-point selection disease-free survival x-tile software program primary breast cancer full access early breast cancer tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes tumor infiltrating lymphocytes de bock gh privacy choices/manage cookies breast cancer recurrence breast cancer res invasive breast cancer related subjects squamous cell carcinoma breast cancer characterized contralateral breast cancer breast cancer registry korean breast cancer bilateral breast cancer female breast cancer breast tumor center creative commons license show important prognostic eighth tnm systems
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- Missing value imputation in high-dimensional phenomic data: imputable or not, and how?
- Nottingham prognostic index in triple-negative breast cancer: a reliable prognostic tool?
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headline:Development and validation of nomograms predicting survival in Chinese patients with triple negative breast cancer
description:Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive and heterogeneous disease. Nomograms predicting outcomes of TNBC are needed for risk management. Nomograms were based on an analysis of 296 non-metastatic TNBC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from 2002 to 2014. The end points were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, PREDICT and CancerMath. Models were subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using independent cohorts of 191 patients from the second Xiangya Hospital and Peking University Shenzhen Hospital between 2007 and 2012. On multivariable analysis of training cohort, independent prognostic factors were stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index, which were then selected into the nomograms. The calibration curves for probability of DFS and OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomograms was significantly higher than that of the seventh and eighth AJCC staging system for predicting DFS (training: 0.743 vs 0.666 (Pβ=β0.003) and 0.664 (Pβ=β0.024); validation: 0.784 vs 0.632 (Pβ=β0.02) and 0.607 (Pβ=β0.002)) and OS (training: 0.791 vs 0.683 (Pβ=β0.004) and 0.677 (Pβ<β0.001); validation: 0.783 vs 0.656 (Pβ=β0.006) and 0.606 (Pβ=β0.001)). Our nomograms had larger AUCs compared with PREDICT and CancerMath. In addition, the nomograms showed good performance in stratifying different risk groups of patients both in the training and validation cohorts. We have developed novel and practical nomograms that can provide individual prediction of DFS and OS for TNBC based on stromal TILs, tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index. Our nomograms may help clinicians in risk consulting and selection of long term survivors.
datePublished:2019-06-06T00:00:00Z
dateModified:2019-06-06T00:00:00Z
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keywords:
Nomograms
Disease-free survival
Overall survival
Triple negative breast cancer
Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes
Cancer Research
Oncology
Surgical Oncology
Health Promotion and Disease Prevention
Biomedicine
general
Medicine/Public Health
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headline:Development and validation of nomograms predicting survival in Chinese patients with triple negative breast cancer
description:Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive and heterogeneous disease. Nomograms predicting outcomes of TNBC are needed for risk management. Nomograms were based on an analysis of 296 non-metastatic TNBC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from 2002 to 2014. The end points were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, PREDICT and CancerMath. Models were subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using independent cohorts of 191 patients from the second Xiangya Hospital and Peking University Shenzhen Hospital between 2007 and 2012. On multivariable analysis of training cohort, independent prognostic factors were stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index, which were then selected into the nomograms. The calibration curves for probability of DFS and OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomograms was significantly higher than that of the seventh and eighth AJCC staging system for predicting DFS (training: 0.743 vs 0.666 (Pβ=β0.003) and 0.664 (Pβ=β0.024); validation: 0.784 vs 0.632 (Pβ=β0.02) and 0.607 (Pβ=β0.002)) and OS (training: 0.791 vs 0.683 (Pβ=β0.004) and 0.677 (Pβ<β0.001); validation: 0.783 vs 0.656 (Pβ=β0.006) and 0.606 (Pβ=β0.001)). Our nomograms had larger AUCs compared with PREDICT and CancerMath. In addition, the nomograms showed good performance in stratifying different risk groups of patients both in the training and validation cohorts. We have developed novel and practical nomograms that can provide individual prediction of DFS and OS for TNBC based on stromal TILs, tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index. Our nomograms may help clinicians in risk consulting and selection of long term survivors.
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Nomograms
Disease-free survival
Overall survival
Triple negative breast cancer
Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes
Cancer Research
Oncology
Surgical Oncology
Health Promotion and Disease Prevention
Biomedicine
general
Medicine/Public Health
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