
DOI . ORG {
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Title[redir]:
Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations | European Journal of Epidemiology
Description:
Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. A key problem is that there are no interpretations of these concepts that are at once simple, intuitive, correct, and foolproof. Instead, correct use and interpretation of these statistics requires an attention to detail which seems to tax the patience of working scientists. This high cognitive demand has led to an epidemic of shortcut definitions and interpretations that are simply wrong, sometimes disastrously so—and yet these misinterpretations dominate much of the scientific literature. In light of this problem, we provide definitions and a discussion of basic statistics that are more general and critical than typically found in traditional introductory expositions. Our goal is to provide a resource for instructors, researchers, and consumers of statistics whose knowledge of statistical theory and technique may be limited but who wish to avoid and spot misinterpretations. We emphasize how violation of often unstated analysis protocols (such as selecting analyses for presentation based on the P values they produce) can lead to small P values even if the declared test hypothesis is correct, and can lead to large P values even if that hypothesis is incorrect. We then provide an explanatory list of 25 misinterpretations of P values, confidence intervals, and power. We conclude with guidelines for improving statistical interpretation and reporting.
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Keywords {🔍}
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Topics {✒️}
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Questions {❓}
- Is proof of statistical significance relevant?
- Low P-values or narrow confidence intervals: which are more durable?
- Sifting the evidence—what’s wrong with significance tests?
- The end of the P-value?
- The environment and disease: association or causation?
- Transparency and disclosure, neutrality and balance: shared values or just shared words?
- Veto on the use of null hypothesis testing and p intervals: right or wrong?
- What if there were no significance tests?
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mainEntity:
headline:Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations
description:Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. A key problem is that there are no interpretations of these concepts that are at once simple, intuitive, correct, and foolproof. Instead, correct use and interpretation of these statistics requires an attention to detail which seems to tax the patience of working scientists. This high cognitive demand has led to an epidemic of shortcut definitions and interpretations that are simply wrong, sometimes disastrously so—and yet these misinterpretations dominate much of the scientific literature. In light of this problem, we provide definitions and a discussion of basic statistics that are more general and critical than typically found in traditional introductory expositions. Our goal is to provide a resource for instructors, researchers, and consumers of statistics whose knowledge of statistical theory and technique may be limited but who wish to avoid and spot misinterpretations. We emphasize how violation of often unstated analysis protocols (such as selecting analyses for presentation based on the P values they produce) can lead to small P values even if the declared test hypothesis is correct, and can lead to large P values even if that hypothesis is incorrect. We then provide an explanatory list of 25 misinterpretations of P values, confidence intervals, and power. We conclude with guidelines for improving statistical interpretation and reporting.
datePublished:2016-05-21T00:00:00Z
dateModified:2016-05-21T00:00:00Z
pageStart:337
pageEnd:350
license:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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keywords:
Confidence intervals
Hypothesis testing
Null testing
P value
Power
Significance tests
Statistical testing
Epidemiology
Public Health
Infectious Diseases
Cardiology
Oncology
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headline:Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations
description:Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. A key problem is that there are no interpretations of these concepts that are at once simple, intuitive, correct, and foolproof. Instead, correct use and interpretation of these statistics requires an attention to detail which seems to tax the patience of working scientists. This high cognitive demand has led to an epidemic of shortcut definitions and interpretations that are simply wrong, sometimes disastrously so—and yet these misinterpretations dominate much of the scientific literature. In light of this problem, we provide definitions and a discussion of basic statistics that are more general and critical than typically found in traditional introductory expositions. Our goal is to provide a resource for instructors, researchers, and consumers of statistics whose knowledge of statistical theory and technique may be limited but who wish to avoid and spot misinterpretations. We emphasize how violation of often unstated analysis protocols (such as selecting analyses for presentation based on the P values they produce) can lead to small P values even if the declared test hypothesis is correct, and can lead to large P values even if that hypothesis is incorrect. We then provide an explanatory list of 25 misinterpretations of P values, confidence intervals, and power. We conclude with guidelines for improving statistical interpretation and reporting.
datePublished:2016-05-21T00:00:00Z
dateModified:2016-05-21T00:00:00Z
pageStart:337
pageEnd:350
license:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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keywords:
Confidence intervals
Hypothesis testing
Null testing
P value
Power
Significance tests
Statistical testing
Epidemiology
Public Health
Infectious Diseases
Cardiology
Oncology
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