We are analyzing https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10552-009-9459-z.

Title:
Estimates of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening mammography | Cancer Causes & Control
Description:
Purpose To estimate the extent of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening in New South Wales, Australia, a population with a well-established mammography screening program which has achieved full geographic coverage. Methods We calculated overdiagnosis as the observed annual incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW in 1999–2001 (a screened population) minus the expected annual incidence in this population at the same time, as a percentage of the expected incidence. We estimated expected incidence without screening in 1999–2001 from the incidence of invasive breast cancer in: (1) women in unscreened age groups (interpolation method); and (2) women in all age groups prior to the implementation of screening (extrapolation method). We then adjusted these estimates for trends in major risk factors for breast cancer that may have coincided with the introduction of mammography screening: increasing obesity, use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and nulliparity. Finally, we adjusted for lead time to produce estimates of expected incidence in 1999–2001. These were compared with the observed incidence in 1999–2001 to calculate overdiagnosis of breast cancer associated with screening. Results Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer among 50–69 year NSW women was estimated to be 42 and 30% using the interpolation and extrapolation methods, respectively. Conclusion Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer attributable to mammography screening appears to be substantial. Our estimates are similar to recent estimates from other screening programmes. Overdiagnosis merits greater attention in research and in clinical and public health policy making.
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month download article/chapter au/dataonline/riskfactors/index high-throughput diagnostic test population-based mammography screening related subjects full article pdf privacy choices/manage cookies van oortmarssen gj lacey jv jr van der velde postmenopausal breast cancer de koning hj test evaluation program invasive breast cancer breast cancer screening premenopausal breast cancer breast cancer 15 years hormone replacement therapy van gils ch olsen ah gene-expression signature mammography screening appears oestrogen replacement therapy breast cancer risk body mass index conditions privacy policy breast cancer incidence european economic area unscreened age groups age groups prior brinton la jorgensen kj european prospective investigation fraumeni jf jr upper age limit lahti-domenici js mental health services article cancer full access extra incidence caused large prospective study iarc sci publ major risk factors observed annual incidence expected annual incidence accepting optional cookies article morrell prospective cohort study article log check access

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         description:To estimate the extent of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening in New South Wales, Australia, a population with a well-established mammography screening program which has achieved full geographic coverage. We calculated overdiagnosis as the observed annual incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW in 1999–2001 (a screened population) minus the expected annual incidence in this population at the same time, as a percentage of the expected incidence. We estimated expected incidence without screening in 1999–2001 from the incidence of invasive breast cancer in: (1) women in unscreened age groups (interpolation method); and (2) women in all age groups prior to the implementation of screening (extrapolation method). We then adjusted these estimates for trends in major risk factors for breast cancer that may have coincided with the introduction of mammography screening: increasing obesity, use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and nulliparity. Finally, we adjusted for lead time to produce estimates of expected incidence in 1999–2001. These were compared with the observed incidence in 1999–2001 to calculate overdiagnosis of breast cancer associated with screening. Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer among 50–69 year NSW women was estimated to be 42 and 30% using the interpolation and extrapolation methods, respectively. Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer attributable to mammography screening appears to be substantial. Our estimates are similar to recent estimates from other screening programmes. Overdiagnosis merits greater attention in research and in clinical and public health policy making.
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